We get into some talk about art, tonight. Specifically, acting. More specifically, TV shows. Most specifically, House of Cards on Netflix. But it’s still pretty interesting and insightful, dammit! Then we have a sort of British theme, partially due to a questioner, and partially due to a question. Enjoy!
QUESTIONS:
Are we nearly there yet? — Craig
When Queen Elisabeth II passes, will the entire Commonwealth reissue its currency? — Anonymous
LINKS:
Nothing really, but this is what Tony was watching right before the taping.
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Mythbusters and changing doors – It’s kind of like the “always double down on an 11” in Blackjack. Sometimes, you’re going to fail, but mathematically speaking, your odds are good in hitting Blackjack if you hit once on an 11.
DareDevil could have been worse.
It was a stepping stone movie. It was reasonable for the time.
I believe my “Are we there yet?” was “How much longer?” but then it became, “Is it much farther?”
Because of The Smurfs.
Wow! You did MATH! Good job!
I posed that before Tony referenced Papa Smurf.
Over time, like Tony, I got to know the routes we would take to the place that was far away.
So after a while it was asking if we were almost to a particular landmark.
“Are we almost to the stick farm?”
Queen Elizabeth II and money – This is why we put dead Presidents on our money in ‘MERICA!
Totally avoids the problem.
OK… now I understand the Monty Hall Problem.
First, it needs to be clear that the people who debate this issue are actually sort of talking past one another. On some level, both sides are right given the particular way they’re approaching the problem. In fact, for the people who insist there’s a 50-50 chance of picking the car once the goat is revealed behind the third door, the statistical benefit of switching one’s pick isn’t really relevant. It has nothing to do with the point they’re making, because it has nothing to do with the question they think is being asked.
The question they think is being asked is: “Given two doors where there can only be a car behind one and a goat behind the other, what are the *a priori* odds of finding the car OR the goat when just one door is opened?” The answer to this question is 50%.
But this isn’t the question being asked. The question being asked is: “Given three doors where, *a priori*, each door has a 1/3 chance of having a car behind it and 2/3 chance of having a goat behind it, and given that one door has been chosen and a second door has been opened to reveal a goat, what can we say about the probability that the door chosen has the car behind it?”
This is actually a very different question. Another way to ask it is, “What are the odds that we picked the door with the car behind it *on the very first try*.” I hope it’s obvious that the answer to this question is the same as before any other door was opened: 1/3. If this is true, though, it means that the odds we’ve picked the *wrong* door on the first try is also the same: 2/3. And given that there’s only one more possible door to open, logic dictates that this door has a 2/3rds chance of being the correct one.
It actually makes perfect sense once a person understands what’s really being asked. Also, it’s obvious without even testing it that the second question is most relevant to what will actually happen, statistically, if a person stays with their pick or switches.
Better explanation than Tony gave, but it appears you have done some research to do so. I like that you used a priori in the description.
Yeah, I checked it out on Wiki, but I didn’t get it when they explained it either. Still, I gained some insight there that helped me see that the confusion was more about communication that statistics.
Er… “more about communication THAN statistics”.
Ironic typos. Gotta love ’em.
So how does the Goat Paradox work with a Monty Hall campaign? If you don’t take the +1 sword there may be a Vorpal Sword down the line?
I have finished the script. I like it for the most part. I’m not entirely into it, as its not necessarily up my alley, but I don’t think its horrible. Now, considering that I was reading at night before bed its quite likely I missed some errors and such, but I don’t remember them. I think I would be good as the announcer, and pretty much any of the princes.
My gamer YouTube is youtube.com/users/SirGuido. I post reviews, general gamer geekery, some skits sometimes, things like that.
You know there are times when Tony gets off on a tangent when I start hearing Henry Philips’ “She’s talking again.” 🙂
Alan Alda is scary. Truely. (As in I was playing Scattergories once, a game I loathe, and the letter was A, and the category was “scary things” and my answer was… Alan Alda)
Oh also, when I was a kid I was a voracious reader so I generally didn’t say “Are we there yet?” I usually said “Oh we’re here already?” because I read the entire time. Granted we never drove more than like 2 hours, because we never really went anywhere.
Actually, Mythbusters proved that it is possible to polish a turd.
Happy Jacks is in their ninth season and from a quick google search, appears to have been around since at least 2009; making them more than just a year older than The Magical Talking Hat.
I did finish reading William’s radio play script, but don’t have any additional comments to send back on it.
Was Aperture R&D the new Aperture Laboratories webseries of which you spoke?
I’ve not watched House of Cards yet, in part because I’m not sure how I feel about it. Basically, Netflix took a look at all the data they gather on their users and asked themselves what people like. Then they made themselves a show they knew people would like; plus political dramas aren’t normally my cup of tea. Though your discussion of the show (plus mentioning it’s got Princess Buttercup in it) makes me more likely to give it a shot.
TONY You’ve not seen O, Brother Where Art Thou? WTF, dude! That’s a great movie!!
Are we there yet: Sounds like your childhood, family vacations were rather similar to mine (in that we’d use them to visit family). When I was little; we lived down in NC and most summers would drive back to IA to visit family. Given that drive takes days; I think we quickly learned not to bother asking are we there yet. Instead we’d drive our parents nuts by fighting in the back seat.
Commonwealth currency: Most likely yes, though the old currency will still be valid. They’ll just stop printing the old version and only print new bills with the new design.